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San Fernando CD vs Deportivo La Coruna — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

San Fernando CD
San Fernando CD
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Deportivo La Coruna
Deportivo La Coruna
1/29/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Estadio Iberoamericano 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

San Fernando CD34%
×Draw28%
Deportivo La Coruna38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Fernando CD
1.16
Deportivo La Coruna
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 68 away

creates per match

San Fernando CD
1.47
Deportivo La Coruna
1.15

allows per match

San Fernando CD
1.32
Deportivo La Coruna
0.84

finishing

San Fernando CD+0.00on par
Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Fernando CD ↓

Deportivo La Coruna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

San Fernando CD or draw
62%
San Fernando CD or Deportivo La Coruna
72%
Draw or Deportivo La Coruna
66%

Winning margin

San Fernando CD wins by 2+
14%
Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

San Fernando CD 1+ goals
69%
San Fernando CD 2+ goals
32%
San Fernando CD 3+ goals
11%
Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals
71%
Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals
35%
Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

San Fernando CD (draw refunded)
48%
Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Fernando CD at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Deportivo La Coruna away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Fernando CD attack 1.47 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.16

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.15 + San Fernando CD defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

San Fernando CD scores more
34%
level
28%
Deportivo La Coruna scores more
38%

Deportivo La Coruna at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Fernando CD vs Deportivo La Coruna

San Fernando CD and Deportivo La Coruna drew 2-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Iberoamericano 2010 in San Fernando.