San Fernando CD 0–2 Barcelona B: Result & Stats

San Fernando CD

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Barcelona B

4/30/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 34Estadio Iberoamericano 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

San Fernando CD39%

×Draw27%

Barcelona B34%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Fernando CDExpected goals in this matchBarcelona B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.19

San Fernando CD

1.29

Barcelona B

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

1.21

creates per match

1.08

1.29

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

San Fernando CD

1.21

Barcelona B

1.08

allows per match

San Fernando CD

1.29

Barcelona B

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Fernando CD+0.00on par

Barcelona B+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Fernando CD ↓

Barcelona B →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

San Fernando CD or draw

66%

San Fernando CD or Barcelona B

73%

Draw or Barcelona B

61%

Winning margin

San Fernando CD wins by 2+

17%

Barcelona B wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

San Fernando CD 1+ goals

72%

San Fernando CD 2+ goals

37%

San Fernando CD 3+ goals

14%

Barcelona B 1+ goals

70%

Barcelona B 2+ goals

33%

Barcelona B 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

San Fernando CD (draw refunded)

53%

Barcelona B (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Fernando CD at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.29 · 38 matches

Barcelona B away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Fernando CD attack 1.21 + Barcelona B defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.29

Barcelona B attack 1.08 + San Fernando CD defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

San Fernando CD scores more

39%

level

27%

Barcelona B scores more

34%

San Fernando CD at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "San Fernando CD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff