San Fernando CD 2–1 Badajoz: Result & Stats

San Fernando CD

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Badajoz

2/12/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 23Estadio Iberoamericano 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

San Fernando CD44%

×Draw27%

Badajoz28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Fernando CDExpected goals in this matchBadajoz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.04

San Fernando CD

1.37

Badajoz

1.04

San Fernando CD creates 32% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 37 away

1.47

creates per match

0.76

1.32

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

San Fernando CD

1.47

Badajoz

0.76

allows per match

San Fernando CD

1.32

Badajoz

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Fernando CD+0.00on par

Badajoz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Fernando CD ↓

Badajoz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

San Fernando CD or draw

72%

San Fernando CD or Badajoz

73%

Draw or Badajoz

56%

Winning margin

San Fernando CD wins by 2+

21%

Badajoz wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

San Fernando CD 1+ goals

75%

San Fernando CD 2+ goals

40%

San Fernando CD 3+ goals

16%

Badajoz 1+ goals

65%

Badajoz 2+ goals

28%

Badajoz 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

San Fernando CD (draw refunded)

61%

Badajoz (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Fernando CD at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Badajoz away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Fernando CD attack 1.47 + Badajoz defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.37

Badajoz attack 0.76 + San Fernando CD defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

San Fernando CD scores more

44%

level

27%

Badajoz scores more

28%

San Fernando CD at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "San Fernando CD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff