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San Fernando CD vs Antequera — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

San Fernando CD
San Fernando CD
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Antequera
Antequera
11/11/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 12Estadio Iberoamericano 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

San Fernando CD38%
×Draw28%
Antequera35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Fernando CD
1.23
Antequera
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

creates per match

San Fernando CD
1.21
Antequera
1.05

allows per match

San Fernando CD
1.29
Antequera
1.26

finishing

San Fernando CD+0.00on par
Antequera+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Fernando CD ↓

Antequera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

San Fernando CD or draw
65%
San Fernando CD or Antequera
72%
Draw or Antequera
62%

Winning margin

San Fernando CD wins by 2+
16%
Antequera wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

San Fernando CD 1+ goals
71%
San Fernando CD 2+ goals
35%
San Fernando CD 3+ goals
13%
Antequera 1+ goals
69%
Antequera 2+ goals
33%
Antequera 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

San Fernando CD (draw refunded)
52%
Antequera (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Fernando CD at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.29 · 38 matches

Antequera away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Fernando CD attack 1.21 + Antequera defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Antequera attack 1.05 + San Fernando CD defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

San Fernando CD scores more
38%
level
28%
Antequera scores more
35%

San Fernando CD at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "San Fernando CD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Fernando CD vs Antequera

Antequera beat San Fernando CD 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Iberoamericano 2010 in San Fernando.