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San Fernando CD vs Alcoyano — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

San Fernando CD
San Fernando CD
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alcoyano
Alcoyano
3/19/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 28Estadio Iberoamericano 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

San Fernando CD39%
×Draw28%
Alcoyano33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Fernando CD
1.21
Alcoyano
1.10

San Fernando CD creates 10% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 76 away

creates per match

San Fernando CD
1.21
Alcoyano
0.91

allows per match

San Fernando CD
1.29
Alcoyano
1.21

finishing

San Fernando CD+0.00on par
Alcoyano+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Fernando CD ↓

Alcoyano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

San Fernando CD or draw
67%
San Fernando CD or Alcoyano
72%
Draw or Alcoyano
61%

Winning margin

San Fernando CD wins by 2+
17%
Alcoyano wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

San Fernando CD 1+ goals
70%
San Fernando CD 2+ goals
34%
San Fernando CD 3+ goals
12%
Alcoyano 1+ goals
67%
Alcoyano 2+ goals
30%
Alcoyano 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

San Fernando CD (draw refunded)
54%
Alcoyano (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Fernando CD at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.29 · 38 matches

Alcoyano away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.21 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Fernando CD attack 1.21 + Alcoyano defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Alcoyano attack 0.91 + San Fernando CD defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

San Fernando CD scores more
39%
level
28%
Alcoyano scores more
33%

San Fernando CD at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "San Fernando CD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Fernando CD vs Alcoyano

San Fernando CD and Alcoyano drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Iberoamericano 2010 in San Fernando.