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San Diego Wave W vs Orlando Pride W — NWSL Women 2026

San Diego Wave W
San Diego Wave W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Orlando Pride W
Orlando Pride W
6/8/2024NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Round 9Snapdragon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

San Diego Wave W44%
×Draw26%
Orlando Pride W30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Diego Wave W
1.46
Orlando Pride W
1.17

San Diego Wave W creates 25% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 82 away

creates per match

San Diego Wave W
1.39
Orlando Pride W
1.09

allows per match

San Diego Wave W
1.25
Orlando Pride W
1.54

finishing

San Diego Wave W+0.00on par
Orlando Pride W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Diego Wave W ↓

Orlando Pride W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

San Diego Wave W or draw
70%
San Diego Wave W or Orlando Pride W
74%
Draw or Orlando Pride W
56%

Winning margin

San Diego Wave W wins by 2+
21%
Orlando Pride W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

San Diego Wave W 1+ goals
77%
San Diego Wave W 2+ goals
43%
San Diego Wave W 3+ goals
18%
Orlando Pride W 1+ goals
69%
Orlando Pride W 2+ goals
33%
Orlando Pride W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

San Diego Wave W (draw refunded)
59%
Orlando Pride W (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Diego Wave W at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

Orlando Pride W away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.54 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Diego Wave W attack 1.39 + Orlando Pride W defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.46

Orlando Pride W attack 1.09 + San Diego Wave W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

San Diego Wave W scores more
44%
level
26%
Orlando Pride W scores more
30%

San Diego Wave W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "San Diego Wave W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NWSL Women: San Diego Wave W 1–1 Orlando Pride W

San Diego Wave W and Orlando Pride W drew 1-1 in NWSL Women on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego, California.