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San Diego Wave W vs Kansas City W — NWSL Women 2026

San Diego Wave W
San Diego Wave W
Preview
02:00
Kansas City W
Kansas City W
9/19/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StageSnapdragon Stadium
Big match
41%
San Diego Wave W
model favours
41%26%33%

Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

San Diego Wave W41%
×Draw26%
Kansas City W33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Diego Wave W
1.40
Kansas City W
1.22

San Diego Wave W creates 15% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 72 away

creates per match

San Diego Wave W
1.39
Kansas City W
1.19

allows per match

San Diego Wave W
1.25
Kansas City W
1.40

finishing

San Diego Wave W+0.00on par
Kansas City W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Diego Wave W ↓

Kansas City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

San Diego Wave W or draw
67%
San Diego Wave W or Kansas City W
74%
Draw or Kansas City W
59%

Winning margin

San Diego Wave W wins by 2+
19%
Kansas City W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

San Diego Wave W 1+ goals
75%
San Diego Wave W 2+ goals
41%
San Diego Wave W 3+ goals
17%
Kansas City W 1+ goals
70%
Kansas City W 2+ goals
34%
Kansas City W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

San Diego Wave W (draw refunded)
56%
Kansas City W (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Diego Wave W at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

Kansas City W away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.40 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Diego Wave W attack 1.39 + Kansas City W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

Kansas City W attack 1.19 + San Diego Wave W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

San Diego Wave W scores more
41%
level
26%
Kansas City W scores more
33%

San Diego Wave W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "San Diego Wave W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Kansas City W outscore their xG (2.3 vs 1.6 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
San Diego Wave W
Balanced
Kansas City W
Defensively solid
56%Possession47%
81%Pass accuracy76%
10.7ShotsBiggest gap13.3
—xG1.60
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
San Diego Wave WKansas City W

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

1
San Diego Wave W
2
Draws
6
Kansas City W
Avg goals: 3.2BTTS: 78%
2–21–20–21–41–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
DLWWW
W
DLWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: San Diego Wave W host Kansas City W

September 19, 2026: San Diego Wave W take on Kansas City W in NWSL Women. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

San Diego Wave W host Kansas City W at Snapdragon Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.