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Kansas City W vs San Diego Wave W — NWSL Women 2025

Kansas City W
Kansas City W
Preview
00:00
San Diego Wave W
San Diego Wave W
7/18/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StageCPKC Stadium
56%
Kansas City W
model favours
56%23%21%
1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kansas City W56%
×Draw23%
San Diego Wave W21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kansas City W
1.83
San Diego Wave W
1.03

Kansas City W creates 78% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 25 away

creates per match

Kansas City W
2.45
San Diego Wave W
1.48

allows per match

Kansas City W
0.59
San Diego Wave W
1.20

finishing

Kansas City W+0.00on par
San Diego Wave W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kansas City W ↓

San Diego Wave W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kansas City W or draw
79%
Kansas City W or San Diego Wave W
77%
Draw or San Diego Wave W
44%

Winning margin

Kansas City W wins by 2+
32%
San Diego Wave W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kansas City W 1+ goals
84%
Kansas City W 2+ goals
54%
Kansas City W 3+ goals
28%
San Diego Wave W 1+ goals
64%
San Diego Wave W 2+ goals
28%
San Diego Wave W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kansas City W (draw refunded)
73%
San Diego Wave W (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kansas City W at home — creates 2.45, concedes 0.59 · 22 matches

San Diego Wave W away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.20 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kansas City W attack 2.45 + San Diego Wave W defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.83

San Diego Wave W attack 1.48 + Kansas City W defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kansas City W scores more
56%
level
23%
San Diego Wave W scores more
21%

Kansas City W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kansas City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
LWLWW
W
LWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kansas City W host San Diego Wave W

July 18, 2026: Kansas City W take on San Diego Wave W in NWSL Women. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Kansas City W host San Diego Wave W at CPKC Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.