San Diego Wave W 0–1 Houston Dash W: Result & Stats

San Diego Wave W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Houston Dash W

3/15/2026

NWSL Women · Group StageSnapdragon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

San Diego Wave W44%

×Draw26%

Houston Dash W30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Diego Wave WExpected goals in this matchHouston Dash W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.15

San Diego Wave W

1.44

Houston Dash W

1.15

San Diego Wave W creates 25% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 82 away

1.39

creates per match

1.04

1.25

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

San Diego Wave W

1.39

Houston Dash W

1.04

allows per match

San Diego Wave W

1.25

Houston Dash W

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Diego Wave W+0.00on par

Houston Dash W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Diego Wave W ↓

Houston Dash W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

San Diego Wave W or draw

70%

San Diego Wave W or Houston Dash W

74%

Draw or Houston Dash W

56%

Winning margin

San Diego Wave W wins by 2+

21%

Houston Dash W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

San Diego Wave W 1+ goals

76%

San Diego Wave W 2+ goals

42%

San Diego Wave W 3+ goals

18%

Houston Dash W 1+ goals

68%

Houston Dash W 2+ goals

32%

Houston Dash W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

San Diego Wave W (draw refunded)

59%

Houston Dash W (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Diego Wave W at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

Houston Dash W away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.49 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Diego Wave W attack 1.39 + Houston Dash W defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.44

Houston Dash W attack 1.04 + San Diego Wave W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

San Diego Wave W scores more

44%

level

26%

Houston Dash W scores more

30%

San Diego Wave W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "San Diego Wave W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff