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San Diego Wave W vs Chicago Red Stars W — NWSL Women 2026

San Diego Wave W
San Diego Wave W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chicago Red Stars W
Chicago Red Stars W
3/29/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StageSnapdragon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

San Diego Wave W48%
×Draw25%
Chicago Red Stars W28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Diego Wave W
1.63
Chicago Red Stars W
1.19

San Diego Wave W creates 37% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 84 away

creates per match

San Diego Wave W
1.39
Chicago Red Stars W
1.13

allows per match

San Diego Wave W
1.25
Chicago Red Stars W
1.86

finishing

San Diego Wave W+0.00on par
Chicago Red Stars W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Diego Wave W ↓

Chicago Red Stars W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

San Diego Wave W or draw
72%
San Diego Wave W or Chicago Red Stars W
75%
Draw or Chicago Red Stars W
52%

Winning margin

San Diego Wave W wins by 2+
25%
Chicago Red Stars W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

San Diego Wave W 1+ goals
80%
San Diego Wave W 2+ goals
48%
San Diego Wave W 3+ goals
22%
Chicago Red Stars W 1+ goals
70%
Chicago Red Stars W 2+ goals
33%
Chicago Red Stars W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

San Diego Wave W (draw refunded)
63%
Chicago Red Stars W (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Diego Wave W at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

Chicago Red Stars W away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.86 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Diego Wave W attack 1.39 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.63

Chicago Red Stars W attack 1.13 + San Diego Wave W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

San Diego Wave W scores more
48%
level
25%
Chicago Red Stars W scores more
28%

San Diego Wave W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "San Diego Wave W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Diego Wave W vs Chicago Red Stars W

San Diego Wave W beat Chicago Red Stars W 2-0 in NWSL Women on March 29, 2026.

The match was played at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego.