Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

San Diego Surf vs Albion San Diego W — League #1116 2026

San Diego Surf
San Diego Surf
FT
6 – 1
Albion San Diego W
Albion San Diego W
6/6/2024League #1116League #1116 · West - 6Surf Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

San Diego Surf82%
×Draw10%
Albion San Diego W8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Diego Surf
4.10
Albion San Diego W
1.35

San Diego Surf creates 204% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

San Diego Surf
5.00
Albion San Diego W
1.20

allows per match

San Diego Surf
1.50
Albion San Diego W
3.20

finishing

San Diego Surf+0.00on par
Albion San Diego W+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Diego Surf ↓

Albion San Diego W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
76%24%4.5
58%42%

Double chance

San Diego Surf or draw
92%
San Diego Surf or Albion San Diego W
90%
Draw or Albion San Diego W
18%

Winning margin

San Diego Surf wins by 2+
66%
Albion San Diego W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

San Diego Surf 1+ goals
98%
San Diego Surf 2+ goals
90%
San Diego Surf 3+ goals
75%
Albion San Diego W 1+ goals
74%
Albion San Diego W 2+ goals
39%
Albion San Diego W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

San Diego Surf (draw refunded)
91%
Albion San Diego W (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Diego Surf at home — creates 5.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Albion San Diego W away — creates 1.20, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Diego Surf attack 5.00 + Albion San Diego W defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 4.10

Albion San Diego W attack 1.20 + San Diego Surf defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

San Diego Surf scores more
82%
level
10%
Albion San Diego W scores more
8%

San Diego Surf at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "San Diego Surf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #1116: San Diego Surf 6–1 Albion San Diego W

San Diego Surf beat Albion San Diego W 6-1 in League #1116 on June 6, 2024.

The match was played at Surf Sports Park in Del Mar, California.