San Diego Loyal 1–0 Tampa Bay Rowdies

San Diego Loyal

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tampa Bay Rowdies

4/23/2023

USL Championship · Round 8Torero Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

San Diego Loyal42%

×Draw25%

Tampa Bay Rowdies33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Diego LoyalExpected goals in this matchTampa Bay Rowdies

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.31

San Diego Loyal

1.52

Tampa Bay Rowdies

1.31

San Diego Loyal creates 16% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 135 away

1.85

creates per match

1.33

1.29

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

San Diego Loyal

1.85

Tampa Bay Rowdies

1.33

allows per match

San Diego Loyal

1.29

Tampa Bay Rowdies

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Diego Loyal+0.00on par

Tampa Bay Rowdies+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Diego Loyal ↓

Tampa Bay Rowdies →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

San Diego Loyal or draw

67%

San Diego Loyal or Tampa Bay Rowdies

75%

Draw or Tampa Bay Rowdies

58%

Winning margin

San Diego Loyal wins by 2+

21%

Tampa Bay Rowdies wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

San Diego Loyal 1+ goals

78%

San Diego Loyal 2+ goals

45%

San Diego Loyal 3+ goals

20%

Tampa Bay Rowdies 1+ goals

73%

Tampa Bay Rowdies 2+ goals

38%

Tampa Bay Rowdies 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

San Diego Loyal (draw refunded)

56%

Tampa Bay Rowdies (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Diego Loyal at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.29 · 59 matches

Tampa Bay Rowdies away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.19 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Diego Loyal attack 1.85 + Tampa Bay Rowdies defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.52

Tampa Bay Rowdies attack 1.33 + San Diego Loyal defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

San Diego Loyal scores more

42%

level

25%

Tampa Bay Rowdies scores more

33%

San Diego Loyal at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "San Diego Loyal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff