San Diego Loyal 1–3 Reno 1868: Result & Stats

San Diego Loyal

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Reno 1868

8/23/2020

USL Championship · Round 15Torero Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

San Diego Loyal37%

×Draw24%

Reno 186839%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Diego LoyalExpected goals in this matchReno 1868

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.56

San Diego Loyal

1.52

Reno 1868

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 44 away

1.85

creates per match

1.84

1.29

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

San Diego Loyal

1.85

Reno 1868

1.84

allows per match

San Diego Loyal

1.29

Reno 1868

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Diego Loyal+0.00on par

Reno 1868+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Diego Loyal ↓

Reno 1868 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

San Diego Loyal or draw

61%

San Diego Loyal or Reno 1868

76%

Draw or Reno 1868

63%

Winning margin

San Diego Loyal wins by 2+

18%

Reno 1868 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

San Diego Loyal 1+ goals

78%

San Diego Loyal 2+ goals

45%

San Diego Loyal 3+ goals

20%

Reno 1868 1+ goals

79%

Reno 1868 2+ goals

46%

Reno 1868 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

San Diego Loyal (draw refunded)

49%

Reno 1868 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Diego Loyal at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.29 · 59 matches

Reno 1868 away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.20 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Diego Loyal attack 1.85 + Reno 1868 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.52

Reno 1868 attack 1.84 + San Diego Loyal defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

San Diego Loyal scores more

37%

level

24%

Reno 1868 scores more

39%

Reno 1868 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Reno 1868 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff