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San Diego Loyal vs Real Monarchs — USL Championship 2018

San Diego Loyal
San Diego Loyal
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Real Monarchs
Real Monarchs
8/8/2021USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 25Torero Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

San Diego Loyal52%
×Draw23%
Real Monarchs25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Diego Loyal
1.83
Real Monarchs
1.21

San Diego Loyal creates 51% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 57 away

creates per match

San Diego Loyal
1.85
Real Monarchs
1.12

allows per match

San Diego Loyal
1.29
Real Monarchs
1.81

finishing

San Diego Loyal+0.00on par
Real Monarchs+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Diego Loyal ↓

Real Monarchs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

San Diego Loyal or draw
75%
San Diego Loyal or Real Monarchs
77%
Draw or Real Monarchs
48%

Winning margin

San Diego Loyal wins by 2+
29%
Real Monarchs wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

San Diego Loyal 1+ goals
84%
San Diego Loyal 2+ goals
54%
San Diego Loyal 3+ goals
28%
Real Monarchs 1+ goals
70%
Real Monarchs 2+ goals
34%
Real Monarchs 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

San Diego Loyal (draw refunded)
67%
Real Monarchs (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Diego Loyal at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.29 · 59 matches

Real Monarchs away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.81 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Diego Loyal attack 1.85 + Real Monarchs defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.83

Real Monarchs attack 1.12 + San Diego Loyal defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

San Diego Loyal scores more
52%
level
23%
Real Monarchs scores more
25%

San Diego Loyal at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "San Diego Loyal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: San Diego Loyal 0–1 Real Monarchs

Real Monarchs beat San Diego Loyal 1-0 in USL Championship on August 8, 2021.

The match was played at Torero Stadium in San Diego, California.