San Diego Loyal 3–3 Phoenix Rising: Result & Stats

San Diego Loyal

AET

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Phoenix Rising

10/23/2023

USL Championship · Conference - Quarter-finalsTorero Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

San Diego Loyal45%

×Draw24%

Phoenix Rising31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Diego LoyalExpected goals in this matchPhoenix Rising

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.34

San Diego Loyal

1.68

Phoenix Rising

1.34

San Diego Loyal creates 25% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 136 away

1.85

creates per match

1.40

1.29

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

San Diego Loyal

1.85

Phoenix Rising

1.40

allows per match

San Diego Loyal

1.29

Phoenix Rising

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Diego Loyal+0.00on par

Phoenix Rising+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Diego Loyal ↓

Phoenix Rising →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

San Diego Loyal or draw

69%

San Diego Loyal or Phoenix Rising

76%

Draw or Phoenix Rising

55%

Winning margin

San Diego Loyal wins by 2+

24%

Phoenix Rising wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

San Diego Loyal 1+ goals

81%

San Diego Loyal 2+ goals

50%

San Diego Loyal 3+ goals

24%

Phoenix Rising 1+ goals

74%

Phoenix Rising 2+ goals

39%

Phoenix Rising 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

San Diego Loyal (draw refunded)

60%

Phoenix Rising (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Diego Loyal at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.29 · 59 matches

Phoenix Rising away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.51 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Diego Loyal attack 1.85 + Phoenix Rising defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.68

Phoenix Rising attack 1.40 + San Diego Loyal defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

San Diego Loyal scores more

45%

level

24%

Phoenix Rising scores more

31%

San Diego Loyal at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "San Diego Loyal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff