San Diego Loyal 3–0 Hartford Athletic

San Diego Loyal

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Hartford Athletic

6/12/2022

USL Championship · Round 19Torero Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

San Diego Loyal52%

×Draw23%

Hartford Athletic26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Diego LoyalExpected goals in this matchHartford Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.27

San Diego Loyal

1.89

Hartford Athletic

1.27

San Diego Loyal creates 49% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 113 away

1.85

creates per match

1.25

1.29

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

San Diego Loyal

1.85

Hartford Athletic

1.25

allows per match

San Diego Loyal

1.29

Hartford Athletic

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Diego Loyal+0.00on par

Hartford Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Diego Loyal ↓

Hartford Athletic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

San Diego Loyal or draw

74%

San Diego Loyal or Hartford Athletic

77%

Draw or Hartford Athletic

48%

Winning margin

San Diego Loyal wins by 2+

29%

Hartford Athletic wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

San Diego Loyal 1+ goals

85%

San Diego Loyal 2+ goals

56%

San Diego Loyal 3+ goals

29%

Hartford Athletic 1+ goals

72%

Hartford Athletic 2+ goals

36%

Hartford Athletic 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

San Diego Loyal (draw refunded)

67%

Hartford Athletic (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Diego Loyal at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.29 · 59 matches

Hartford Athletic away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.93 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Diego Loyal attack 1.85 + Hartford Athletic defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.89

Hartford Athletic attack 1.25 + San Diego Loyal defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

San Diego Loyal scores more

52%

level

23%

Hartford Athletic scores more

26%

San Diego Loyal at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "San Diego Loyal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff