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San Diego Loyal vs Colorado Springs — USL Championship 2018

San Diego Loyal
San Diego Loyal
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Colorado Springs
Colorado Springs
7/19/2022USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 27Torero Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

San Diego Loyal51%
×Draw23%
Colorado Springs26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Diego Loyal
1.83
Colorado Springs
1.26

San Diego Loyal creates 45% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 133 away

creates per match

San Diego Loyal
1.85
Colorado Springs
1.23

allows per match

San Diego Loyal
1.29
Colorado Springs
1.82

finishing

San Diego Loyal+0.00on par
Colorado Springs+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Diego Loyal ↓

Colorado Springs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

San Diego Loyal or draw
74%
San Diego Loyal or Colorado Springs
77%
Draw or Colorado Springs
49%

Winning margin

San Diego Loyal wins by 2+
28%
Colorado Springs wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

San Diego Loyal 1+ goals
84%
San Diego Loyal 2+ goals
54%
San Diego Loyal 3+ goals
28%
Colorado Springs 1+ goals
72%
Colorado Springs 2+ goals
36%
Colorado Springs 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

San Diego Loyal (draw refunded)
66%
Colorado Springs (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Diego Loyal at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.29 · 59 matches

Colorado Springs away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.82 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Diego Loyal attack 1.85 + Colorado Springs defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.83

Colorado Springs attack 1.23 + San Diego Loyal defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

San Diego Loyal scores more
51%
level
23%
Colorado Springs scores more
26%

San Diego Loyal at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "San Diego Loyal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Diego Loyal vs Colorado Springs

San Diego Loyal beat Colorado Springs 3-0 in USL Championship on July 19, 2022.

The match was played at Torero Stadium in San Diego, California.