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Larne vs Ballyclare Comrades — League #407 2026

Larne
Larne
FT
3 – 1
Ballyclare Comrades
Ballyclare Comrades
12/26/2018League #407League #407 · Round 20Inver Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Larne70%
×Draw15%
Ballyclare Comrades15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Larne
3.05
Ballyclare Comrades
1.36

Larne creates 124% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Larne
4.00
Ballyclare Comrades
2.33

allows per match

Larne
0.40
Ballyclare Comrades
2.11

finishing

Larne+0.00on par
Ballyclare Comrades+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Larne ↓

Ballyclare Comrades →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Larne or draw
85%
Larne or Ballyclare Comrades
85%
Draw or Ballyclare Comrades
30%

Winning margin

Larne wins by 2+
51%
Ballyclare Comrades wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Larne 1+ goals
95%
Larne 2+ goals
80%
Larne 3+ goals
57%
Ballyclare Comrades 1+ goals
74%
Ballyclare Comrades 2+ goals
39%
Ballyclare Comrades 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Larne (draw refunded)
83%
Ballyclare Comrades (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Larne at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Ballyclare Comrades away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Larne attack 4.00 + Ballyclare Comrades defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 3.05

Ballyclare Comrades attack 2.33 + Larne defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Larne scores more
70%
level
15%
Ballyclare Comrades scores more
15%

Larne at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Larne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Larne vs Ballyclare Comrades

Larne beat Ballyclare Comrades 3-1 in League #407 on December 26, 2018.

The match was played at Inver Park in Larne.