San Cristóbal 1–2 Vega Real: Result & Stats

San Cristóbal

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Vega Real

6/22/2022

Liga Mayor · Round 10Estadio Panamericano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

San Cristóbal28%

×Draw27%

Vega Real46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San CristóbalExpected goals in this matchVega Real

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.41

San Cristóbal

1.03

Vega Real

1.41

Vega Real creates 37% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 67 away

0.64

creates per match

0.99

1.82

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

San Cristóbal

0.64

Vega Real

0.99

allows per match

San Cristóbal

1.82

Vega Real

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Cristóbal+0.00on par

Vega Real+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Cristóbal ↓

Vega Real →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

San Cristóbal or draw

54%

San Cristóbal or Vega Real

73%

Draw or Vega Real

72%

Winning margin

San Cristóbal wins by 2+

10%

Vega Real wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

San Cristóbal 1+ goals

64%

San Cristóbal 2+ goals

28%

San Cristóbal 3+ goals

9%

Vega Real 1+ goals

76%

Vega Real 2+ goals

41%

Vega Real 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

San Cristóbal (draw refunded)

38%

Vega Real (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Cristóbal at home — creates 0.64, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

Vega Real away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.43 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Cristóbal attack 0.64 + Vega Real defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.03

Vega Real attack 0.99 + San Cristóbal defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

San Cristóbal scores more

28%

level

27%

Vega Real scores more

46%

Vega Real at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vega Real will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff