San Cristóbal 0–0 Valls: Result & Stats

San Cristóbal

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Valls

11/8/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 4Camp de Futbol Municipal Ca n'Anglada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

San Cristóbal43%

×Draw29%

Valls28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San CristóbalExpected goals in this matchValls

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.94

San Cristóbal

1.25

Valls

0.94

San Cristóbal creates 33% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 15 away

1.37

creates per match

0.73

1.15

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

San Cristóbal

1.37

Valls

0.73

allows per match

San Cristóbal

1.15

Valls

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Cristóbal+0.00on par

Valls+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Cristóbal ↓

Valls →

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

San Cristóbal or draw

72%

San Cristóbal or Valls

71%

Draw or Valls

57%

Winning margin

San Cristóbal wins by 2+

19%

Valls wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

San Cristóbal 1+ goals

71%

San Cristóbal 2+ goals

36%

San Cristóbal 3+ goals

13%

Valls 1+ goals

61%

Valls 2+ goals

24%

Valls 3+ goals

Draw no bet

San Cristóbal (draw refunded)

61%

Valls (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Cristóbal at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.15 · 109 matches

Valls away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Cristóbal attack 1.37 + Valls defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Valls attack 0.73 + San Cristóbal defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

San Cristóbal scores more

43%

level

29%

Valls scores more

28%

San Cristóbal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "San Cristóbal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

Sergi Gomez← Joel Marigot

46'

Adrián Rivas← Escamilla

59'

Abdeslam Elouliad← Sergio Obispo

59'

Jordi Estivill← Riki

59'

Sergi Gestí← Albert Plana

69'

Arnau Cucurull← Marc Guasch

69'

Ramón Miranda← Cesc Martínez

79'

Juanpi Sepúlveda← Tom Diawara

San

Valls

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Oliver Ballabriga

46'▲Adrián Rivas←▼Escamilla

59'▲Abdeslam Elouliad←▼Sergio Obispo

79'▲Juanpi Sepúlveda←▼Tom Diawara

San Cristóbal substitutes

RivasElouliadSepúlveda

Manager: Joan Pallarés

35'▲Sergi Gomez←▼Joel Marigot

59'▲Jordi Estivill←▼Riki

59'▲Sergi Gestí←▼Albert Plana

69'▲Arnau Cucurull←▼Marc Guasch

69'▲Ramón Miranda←▼Cesc Martínez

Valls substitutes

GomezEstivillGestíCucurullMiranda

Match Recap: San Cristóbal vs Valls

San Cristóbal and Valls drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Camp de Futbol Municipal Ca n'Anglada in Tarrasa.

San Cristóbal vs Valls — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: San Cristóbal vs Valls