San Cristóbal 3–0 Reus: Result & Stats

San Cristóbal

3 – 0

Reus

9/28/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 6Camp de Futbol Municipal Ca n'Anglada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

San Cristóbal75%

×Draw17%

Reus8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San CristóbalExpected goals in this matchReus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

0.57

San Cristóbal

2.19

Reus

0.57

San Cristóbal creates 284% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 18 away

1.37

creates per match

0.00

1.15

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

San Cristóbal

1.37

Reus

0.00

allows per match

San Cristóbal

1.15

Reus

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Cristóbal+0.00on par

Reus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Cristóbal ↓

Reus →

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–014%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2–015%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–011%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

San Cristóbal or draw

92%

San Cristóbal or Reus

83%

Draw or Reus

25%

Winning margin

San Cristóbal wins by 2+

50%

Reus wins by 2+

Team goals

San Cristóbal 1+ goals

89%

San Cristóbal 2+ goals

64%

San Cristóbal 3+ goals

37%

Reus 1+ goals

43%

Reus 2+ goals

11%

Reus 3+ goals

Draw no bet

San Cristóbal (draw refunded)

90%

Reus (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Cristóbal at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.15 · 109 matches

Reus away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Cristóbal attack 1.37 + Reus defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.19

Reus attack 0.00 + San Cristóbal defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 75%?"

San Cristóbal scores more

75%

level

17%

Reus scores more

San Cristóbal at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "San Cristóbal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff