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San Cristóbal vs Atlético de SF — Liga Mayor 2020

San Cristóbal
San Cristóbal
FT
3 – 1
Atlético de SF
Atlético de SF
5/23/2021Liga MayorLiga Mayor · Round 6Estadio Panamericano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

San Cristóbal41%
×Draw23%
Atlético de SF36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Cristóbal
1.71
Atlético de SF
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 9 away

creates per match

San Cristóbal
0.65
Atlético de SF
0.67

allows per match

San Cristóbal
2.56
Atlético de SF
2.78

finishing

San Cristóbal+0.00on par
Atlético de SF+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Cristóbal ↓

Atlético de SF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

San Cristóbal or draw
64%
San Cristóbal or Atlético de SF
77%
Draw or Atlético de SF
59%

Winning margin

San Cristóbal wins by 2+
21%
Atlético de SF wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

San Cristóbal 1+ goals
82%
San Cristóbal 2+ goals
51%
San Cristóbal 3+ goals
24%
Atlético de SF 1+ goals
80%
Atlético de SF 2+ goals
48%
Atlético de SF 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

San Cristóbal (draw refunded)
53%
Atlético de SF (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Cristóbal at home — creates 0.65, concedes 2.56 · 34 matches

Atlético de SF away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Cristóbal attack 0.65 + Atlético de SF defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 1.71

Atlético de SF attack 0.67 + San Cristóbal defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

San Cristóbal scores more
41%
level
23%
Atlético de SF scores more
36%

San Cristóbal at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "San Cristóbal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Mayor: San Cristóbal 3–1 Atlético de SF

San Cristóbal beat Atlético de SF 3-1 in Liga Mayor on May 23, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Panamericano in San Cristóbal.