San Cristóbal 0–3 Atlántico: Result & Stats

San Cristóbal

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Atlántico

9/14/2025

Liga Mayor · Round 9Estadio Panamericano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

San Cristóbal21%

×Draw23%

Atlántico56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San CristóbalExpected goals in this matchAtlántico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.87

San Cristóbal

1.06

Atlántico

1.87

Atlántico creates 76% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 50 away

0.65

creates per match

1.18

2.56

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

San Cristóbal

0.65

Atlántico

1.18

allows per match

San Cristóbal

2.56

Atlántico

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Cristóbal+0.00on par

Atlántico+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Cristóbal ↓

Atlántico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

San Cristóbal or draw

44%

San Cristóbal or Atlántico

77%

Draw or Atlántico

79%

Winning margin

San Cristóbal wins by 2+

8%

Atlántico wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

San Cristóbal 1+ goals

65%

San Cristóbal 2+ goals

29%

San Cristóbal 3+ goals

9%

Atlántico 1+ goals

85%

Atlántico 2+ goals

56%

Atlántico 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

San Cristóbal (draw refunded)

27%

Atlántico (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Cristóbal at home — creates 0.65, concedes 2.56 · 34 matches

Atlántico away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.48 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Cristóbal attack 0.65 + Atlántico defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.06

Atlántico attack 1.18 + San Cristóbal defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

San Cristóbal scores more

21%

level

23%

Atlántico scores more

56%

Atlántico at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Atlántico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff