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San Cristóbal vs Ascó — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

San Cristóbal
San Cristóbal
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ascó
Ascó
4/24/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 33Camp de Futbol Municipal Ca n'Anglada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

San Cristóbal58%
×Draw23%
Ascó19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Cristóbal
1.78
Ascó
0.92

San Cristóbal creates 93% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 16 away

creates per match

San Cristóbal
1.37
Ascó
0.69

allows per match

San Cristóbal
1.15
Ascó
2.19

finishing

San Cristóbal+0.00on par
Ascó+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Cristóbal ↓

Ascó →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

San Cristóbal or draw
81%
San Cristóbal or Ascó
77%
Draw or Ascó
42%

Winning margin

San Cristóbal wins by 2+
33%
Ascó wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

San Cristóbal 1+ goals
83%
San Cristóbal 2+ goals
53%
San Cristóbal 3+ goals
26%
Ascó 1+ goals
60%
Ascó 2+ goals
23%
Ascó 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

San Cristóbal (draw refunded)
75%
Ascó (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Cristóbal at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.15 · 109 matches

Ascó away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Cristóbal attack 1.37 + Ascó defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.78

Ascó attack 0.69 + San Cristóbal defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

San Cristóbal scores more
58%
level
23%
Ascó scores more
19%

San Cristóbal at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "San Cristóbal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Cristóbal vs Ascó

San Cristóbal beat Ascó 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Camp de Futbol Municipal Ca n'Anglada in Tarrasa.