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San Clemente vs Conquense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

San Clemente
San Clemente
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Conquense
Conquense
10/29/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 8Estadio Municipal San Clemente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

San Clemente29%
×Draw28%
Conquense43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Clemente
0.99
Conquense
1.27

Conquense creates 28% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 76 away

creates per match

San Clemente
1.10
Conquense
1.22

allows per match

San Clemente
1.31
Conquense
0.87

finishing

San Clemente+0.00on par
Conquense+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Clemente ↓

Conquense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

San Clemente or draw
57%
San Clemente or Conquense
72%
Draw or Conquense
71%

Winning margin

San Clemente wins by 2+
11%
Conquense wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

San Clemente 1+ goals
63%
San Clemente 2+ goals
26%
San Clemente 3+ goals
8%
Conquense 1+ goals
72%
Conquense 2+ goals
36%
Conquense 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

San Clemente (draw refunded)
40%
Conquense (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Clemente at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

Conquense away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.87 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Clemente attack 1.10 + Conquense defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.99

Conquense attack 1.22 + San Clemente defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

San Clemente scores more
29%
level
28%
Conquense scores more
43%

Conquense at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Conquense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Clemente vs Conquense

Conquense beat San Clemente 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal San Clemente in San Clemente.