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San Clemente vs Atlético Tomelloso — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

San Clemente
San Clemente
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Atlético Tomelloso
Atlético Tomelloso
5/5/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 33Estadio Municipal San Clemente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

San Clemente51%
×Draw26%
Atlético Tomelloso23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Clemente
1.52
Atlético Tomelloso
0.94

San Clemente creates 62% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 32 away

creates per match

San Clemente
1.10
Atlético Tomelloso
0.56

allows per match

San Clemente
1.31
Atlético Tomelloso
1.94

finishing

San Clemente+0.00on par
Atlético Tomelloso+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Clemente ↓

Atlético Tomelloso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

San Clemente or draw
77%
San Clemente or Atlético Tomelloso
74%
Draw or Atlético Tomelloso
49%

Winning margin

San Clemente wins by 2+
26%
Atlético Tomelloso wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

San Clemente 1+ goals
78%
San Clemente 2+ goals
45%
San Clemente 3+ goals
20%
Atlético Tomelloso 1+ goals
61%
Atlético Tomelloso 2+ goals
24%
Atlético Tomelloso 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

San Clemente (draw refunded)
68%
Atlético Tomelloso (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Clemente at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

Atlético Tomelloso away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Clemente attack 1.10 + Atlético Tomelloso defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.52

Atlético Tomelloso attack 0.56 + San Clemente defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

San Clemente scores more
51%
level
26%
Atlético Tomelloso scores more
23%

San Clemente at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "San Clemente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Clemente vs Atlético Tomelloso

San Clemente beat Atlético Tomelloso 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal San Clemente in San Clemente.