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San Bartolomé vs Teror — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

San Bartolomé
San Bartolomé
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Teror
Teror
12/30/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 14Municipal Pedro Espinosa De León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Bartolomé59%
×Draw23%
Teror18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Bartolomé
1.81
Teror
0.89

San Bartolomé creates 103% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

San Bartolomé
1.27
Teror
0.82

allows per match

San Bartolomé
0.96
Teror
2.35

finishing

San Bartolomé+0.00on par
Teror+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Bartolomé ↓

Teror →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

San Bartolomé or draw
82%
San Bartolomé or Teror
77%
Draw or Teror
41%

Winning margin

San Bartolomé wins by 2+
34%
Teror wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

San Bartolomé 1+ goals
84%
San Bartolomé 2+ goals
54%
San Bartolomé 3+ goals
27%
Teror 1+ goals
59%
Teror 2+ goals
22%
Teror 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

San Bartolomé (draw refunded)
76%
Teror (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Bartolomé at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.96 · 51 matches

Teror away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Bartolomé attack 1.27 + Teror defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.81

Teror attack 0.82 + San Bartolomé defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

San Bartolomé scores more
59%
level
23%
Teror scores more
18%

San Bartolomé at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "San Bartolomé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: San Bartolomé 5–1 Teror

San Bartolomé beat Teror 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on December 30, 2023.

The match was played at Municipal Pedro Espinosa De León in San Bartolomé.