San Bartolomé 0–1 Tenerife II: Result & Stats

San Bartolomé

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tenerife II

Raúl 3'

9/16/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 2Municipal Pedro Espinosa De León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

San Bartolomé35%

×Draw28%

Tenerife II37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San BartoloméExpected goals in this matchTenerife II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.21

San Bartolomé

1.18

Tenerife II

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 74 away

1.27

creates per match

1.46

0.96

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

San Bartolomé

1.27

Tenerife II

1.46

allows per match

San Bartolomé

0.96

Tenerife II

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Bartolomé+0.00on par

Tenerife II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Bartolomé ↓

Tenerife II →

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

San Bartolomé or draw

63%

San Bartolomé or Tenerife II

72%

Draw or Tenerife II

65%

Winning margin

San Bartolomé wins by 2+

15%

Tenerife II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

San Bartolomé 1+ goals

69%

San Bartolomé 2+ goals

33%

San Bartolomé 3+ goals

12%

Tenerife II 1+ goals

70%

Tenerife II 2+ goals

34%

Tenerife II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

San Bartolomé (draw refunded)

49%

Tenerife II (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Bartolomé at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.96 · 51 matches

Tenerife II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Bartolomé attack 1.27 + Tenerife II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.18

Tenerife II attack 1.46 + San Bartolomé defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

San Bartolomé scores more

35%

level

28%

Tenerife II scores more

37%

Tenerife II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tenerife II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Raúl

46'

Nadjib Montes← Miguel Machín

46'

Isaac Hernández← O. Jaiteh

62'

Mauri← Ale Vera

62'

David Alonso← Acorán Hernández

62'

Nani← Senem

64'

Adrián Toledo← Jesús Belza

78'

Gabriel Quintero← Ethyan González

90+1'

Dylan Perera← A. Sarr

San

Tenerife

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Juan Antonio Machín

46'▲Nadjib Montes←▼Miguel Machín

62'▲Mauri←▼Ale Vera

62'▲David Alonso←▼Acorán Hernández

62'▲Nani←▼Senem

San Bartolomé substitutes

MontesMauriAlonsoNani

Manager: Mazinho

46'▲Isaac Hernández←▼O. Jaiteh

64'▲Adrián Toledo←▼Jesús Belza

78'▲Gabriel Quintero←▼Ethyan González

90+1'▲Dylan Perera←▼A. Sarr

Tenerife II substitutes

HernándezToledoQuinteroPerera

Match Recap: San Bartolomé vs Tenerife II

Tenerife II beat San Bartolomé 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on September 16, 2023.

Goals: Raúl (3').

The match was played at Municipal Pedro Espinosa De León in San Bartolomé.

San Bartolomé vs Tenerife II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: San Bartolomé vs Tenerife II