San Bartolomé 0–2 Marino: Result & Stats

San Bartolomé

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Marino

2/15/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 22Estadio Municipal Pedro Espinosa De León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

San Bartolomé48%

×Draw26%

Marino26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San BartoloméExpected goals in this matchMarino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.99

San Bartolomé

1.46

Marino

0.99

San Bartolomé creates 47% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 95 away

1.27

creates per match

1.03

0.96

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

San Bartolomé

1.27

Marino

1.03

allows per match

San Bartolomé

0.96

Marino

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Bartolomé+0.00on par

Marino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Bartolomé ↓

Marino →

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

San Bartolomé or draw

74%

San Bartolomé or Marino

74%

Draw or Marino

52%

Winning margin

San Bartolomé wins by 2+

24%

Marino wins by 2+

Team goals

San Bartolomé 1+ goals

77%

San Bartolomé 2+ goals

43%

San Bartolomé 3+ goals

18%

Marino 1+ goals

63%

Marino 2+ goals

26%

Marino 3+ goals

Draw no bet

San Bartolomé (draw refunded)

65%

Marino (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Bartolomé at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.96 · 51 matches

Marino away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.64 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Bartolomé attack 1.27 + Marino defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.46

Marino attack 1.03 + San Bartolomé defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

San Bartolomé scores more

48%

level

26%

Marino scores more

26%

San Bartolomé at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "San Bartolomé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff