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San Bartolomé vs Herbania — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

San Bartolomé
San Bartolomé
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Herbania
Herbania
4/6/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 28Estadio Municipal Pedro Espinosa De León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

San Bartolomé50%
×Draw28%
Herbania22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Bartolomé
1.38
Herbania
0.81

San Bartolomé creates 70% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 67 away

creates per match

San Bartolomé
1.27
Herbania
0.66

allows per match

San Bartolomé
0.96
Herbania
1.49

finishing

San Bartolomé+0.00on par
Herbania+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Bartolomé ↓

Herbania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

San Bartolomé or draw
78%
San Bartolomé or Herbania
72%
Draw or Herbania
50%

Winning margin

San Bartolomé wins by 2+
24%
Herbania wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

San Bartolomé 1+ goals
75%
San Bartolomé 2+ goals
40%
San Bartolomé 3+ goals
16%
Herbania 1+ goals
56%
Herbania 2+ goals
19%
Herbania 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

San Bartolomé (draw refunded)
70%
Herbania (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Bartolomé at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.96 · 51 matches

Herbania away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.49 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Bartolomé attack 1.27 + Herbania defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.38

Herbania attack 0.66 + San Bartolomé defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

San Bartolomé scores more
50%
level
28%
Herbania scores more
22%

San Bartolomé at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "San Bartolomé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: San Bartolomé 0–0 Herbania

San Bartolomé and Herbania drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Pedro Espinosa De León in San Bartolomé.