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San Bartolomé vs Gran Tarajal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

San Bartolomé
San Bartolomé
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gran Tarajal
Gran Tarajal
5/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 32Estadio Municipal Pedro Espinosa De León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

San Bartolomé50%
×Draw26%
Gran Tarajal24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Bartolomé
1.51
Gran Tarajal
0.96

San Bartolomé creates 57% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 75 away

creates per match

San Bartolomé
1.27
Gran Tarajal
0.97

allows per match

San Bartolomé
0.96
Gran Tarajal
1.75

finishing

San Bartolomé+0.00on par
Gran Tarajal+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Bartolomé ↓

Gran Tarajal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

San Bartolomé or draw
76%
San Bartolomé or Gran Tarajal
74%
Draw or Gran Tarajal
50%

Winning margin

San Bartolomé wins by 2+
25%
Gran Tarajal wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

San Bartolomé 1+ goals
78%
San Bartolomé 2+ goals
44%
San Bartolomé 3+ goals
19%
Gran Tarajal 1+ goals
62%
Gran Tarajal 2+ goals
25%
Gran Tarajal 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

San Bartolomé (draw refunded)
68%
Gran Tarajal (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Bartolomé at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.96 · 51 matches

Gran Tarajal away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.75 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Bartolomé attack 1.27 + Gran Tarajal defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.51

Gran Tarajal attack 0.97 + San Bartolomé defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

San Bartolomé scores more
50%
level
26%
Gran Tarajal scores more
24%

San Bartolomé at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "San Bartolomé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: San Bartolomé 2–0 Gran Tarajal

San Bartolomé beat Gran Tarajal 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Pedro Espinosa De León in San Bartolomé.