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San Antonio vs Seattle Sounders II — USL Championship 2018

San Antonio
San Antonio
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Seattle Sounders II
Seattle Sounders II
9/30/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 52Toyota Field (San Antonio, Texas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

San Antonio64%
×Draw20%
Seattle Sounders II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Antonio
2.09
Seattle Sounders II
0.93

San Antonio creates 125% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 18 away

creates per match

San Antonio
1.75
Seattle Sounders II
0.83

allows per match

San Antonio
1.03
Seattle Sounders II
2.44

finishing

San Antonio+0.00on par
Seattle Sounders II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Antonio ↓

Seattle Sounders II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

San Antonio or draw
84%
San Antonio or Seattle Sounders II
80%
Draw or Seattle Sounders II
36%

Winning margin

San Antonio wins by 2+
40%
Seattle Sounders II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

San Antonio 1+ goals
88%
San Antonio 2+ goals
62%
San Antonio 3+ goals
34%
Seattle Sounders II 1+ goals
61%
Seattle Sounders II 2+ goals
24%
Seattle Sounders II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

San Antonio (draw refunded)
80%
Seattle Sounders II (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Antonio at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.03 · 138 matches

Seattle Sounders II away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Antonio attack 1.75 + Seattle Sounders II defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.09

Seattle Sounders II attack 0.83 + San Antonio defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

San Antonio scores more
64%
level
20%
Seattle Sounders II scores more
16%

San Antonio at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "San Antonio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: San Antonio 3–1 Seattle Sounders II

San Antonio beat Seattle Sounders II 3-1 in USL Championship on September 30, 2018.

The match was played at Toyota Field (San Antonio, Texas).