Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

San Antonio vs LDU de Quito — Copa Ecuador 2022

San Antonio
San Antonio
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quitoadvanced
10/9/2025Copa EcuadorCopa Ecuador · Round of 16Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

San Antonio8%
×Draw17%
LDU de Quito75%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Antonio
0.54
LDU de Quito
2.17

LDU de Quito creates 302% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

San Antonio
0.33
LDU de Quito
2.00

allows per match

San Antonio
2.33
LDU de Quito
0.75

finishing

San Antonio+0.00on par
LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Antonio ↓

LDU de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–115%
0–216%
0–311%
0–46%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (16%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

San Antonio or draw
25%
San Antonio or LDU de Quito
83%
Draw or LDU de Quito
92%

Winning margin

San Antonio wins by 2+
2%
LDU de Quito wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

San Antonio 1+ goals
42%
San Antonio 2+ goals
10%
San Antonio 3+ goals
2%
LDU de Quito 1+ goals
89%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
64%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

San Antonio (draw refunded)
10%
LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Antonio at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Antonio attack 0.33 + LDU de Quito defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.54

LDU de Quito attack 2.00 + San Antonio defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

San Antonio scores more
8%
level
17%
LDU de Quito scores more
75%

LDU de Quito at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Antonio vs LDU de Quito

LDU de Quito beat San Antonio 4-0 in Copa Ecuador on October 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra in Ibarra.