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San Antonio vs Indy Eleven — USL Championship 2026

San Antonio
San Antonio
Preview
01:00
Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
8/1/2026USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Group StageToyota Field
52%
San Antonio
model favours
52%24%24%

San Antonio score first in only 14% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

San Antonio52%
×Draw24%
Indy Eleven24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Antonio
1.67
Indy Eleven
1.06

San Antonio creates 58% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 129 away

creates per match

San Antonio
1.75
Indy Eleven
1.11

allows per match

San Antonio
1.01
Indy Eleven
1.58

finishing

San Antonio+0.00on par
Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Antonio ↓

Indy Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

San Antonio or draw
76%
San Antonio or Indy Eleven
76%
Draw or Indy Eleven
48%

Winning margin

San Antonio wins by 2+
28%
Indy Eleven wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

San Antonio 1+ goals
81%
San Antonio 2+ goals
50%
San Antonio 3+ goals
23%
Indy Eleven 1+ goals
65%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
29%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

San Antonio (draw refunded)
68%
Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Antonio at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.01 · 138 matches

Indy Eleven away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.58 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Antonio attack 1.75 + Indy Eleven defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.67

Indy Eleven attack 1.11 + San Antonio defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

San Antonio scores more
52%
level
24%
Indy Eleven scores more
24%

San Antonio at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "San Antonio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 65% of Indy Eleven’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Indy Eleven score first in only 28% of matches
  • 71% of San Antonio’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Indy Eleven have won 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • Both teams score in only 29% of San Antonio’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Antonio
WDWLW
Eleven
LWDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: San Antonio host Indy Eleven

August 1, 2026: San Antonio take on Indy Eleven in USL Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

San Antonio host Indy Eleven at Toyota Field.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.