Indy Eleven 1–0 San Antonio: Result & Stats

Indy Eleven

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

San Antonio

6/15/2024

USL Championship · Round 17Michael A. Carroll Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Indy Eleven43%

×Draw26%

San Antonio31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Indy ElevenExpected goals in this matchSan Antonio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.20

Indy Eleven

1.46

San Antonio

1.20

Indy Eleven creates 22% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 134 away

1.49

creates per match

1.28

1.12

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Indy Eleven

1.49

San Antonio

1.28

allows per match

Indy Eleven

1.12

San Antonio

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Indy Eleven+0.00on par

San Antonio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indy Eleven ↓

San Antonio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Indy Eleven or draw

69%

Indy Eleven or San Antonio

74%

Draw or San Antonio

57%

Winning margin

Indy Eleven wins by 2+

21%

San Antonio wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Indy Eleven 1+ goals

77%

Indy Eleven 2+ goals

43%

Indy Eleven 3+ goals

18%

San Antonio 1+ goals

70%

San Antonio 2+ goals

34%

San Antonio 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)

58%

San Antonio (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indy Eleven at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.12 · 134 matches

San Antonio away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.44 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indy Eleven attack 1.49 + San Antonio defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.46

San Antonio attack 1.28 + Indy Eleven defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Indy Eleven scores more

43%

level

26%

San Antonio scores more

31%

Indy Eleven at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Indy Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff