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San Antonio vs Guayaquil City FC — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

San Antonio
San Antonio
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Guayaquil City FC
Guayaquil City FC
10/13/2024Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 28Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

San Antonio36%
×Draw30%
Guayaquil City FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Antonio
1.04
Guayaquil City FC
1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 35 away

creates per match

San Antonio
1.26
Guayaquil City FC
0.97

allows per match

San Antonio
1.05
Guayaquil City FC
0.83

finishing

San Antonio+0.00on par
Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Antonio ↓

Guayaquil City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

San Antonio or draw
66%
San Antonio or Guayaquil City FC
70%
Draw or Guayaquil City FC
64%

Winning margin

San Antonio wins by 2+
14%
Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

San Antonio 1+ goals
65%
San Antonio 2+ goals
28%
San Antonio 3+ goals
9%
Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals
64%
Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals
27%
Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

San Antonio (draw refunded)
51%
Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Antonio at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.05 · 42 matches

Guayaquil City FC away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.83 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Antonio attack 1.26 + Guayaquil City FC defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.04

Guayaquil City FC attack 0.97 + San Antonio defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

San Antonio scores more
36%
level
30%
Guayaquil City FC scores more
34%

San Antonio at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "San Antonio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Antonio vs Guayaquil City FC

San Antonio beat Guayaquil City FC 2-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on October 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra in Ibarra.