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San Antonio vs Gualaceo SC — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

San Antonio
San Antonio
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Gualaceo SC
Gualaceo SC
3/14/2024Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 1Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

San Antonio45%
×Draw28%
Gualaceo SC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Antonio
1.31
Gualaceo SC
0.94

San Antonio creates 39% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 110 away

creates per match

San Antonio
1.26
Gualaceo SC
0.82

allows per match

San Antonio
1.05
Gualaceo SC
1.35

finishing

San Antonio+0.00on par
Gualaceo SC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Antonio ↓

Gualaceo SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

San Antonio or draw
73%
San Antonio or Gualaceo SC
72%
Draw or Gualaceo SC
55%

Winning margin

San Antonio wins by 2+
21%
Gualaceo SC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

San Antonio 1+ goals
73%
San Antonio 2+ goals
38%
San Antonio 3+ goals
14%
Gualaceo SC 1+ goals
61%
Gualaceo SC 2+ goals
24%
Gualaceo SC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

San Antonio (draw refunded)
63%
Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Antonio at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.05 · 42 matches

Gualaceo SC away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.35 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Antonio attack 1.26 + Gualaceo SC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Gualaceo SC attack 0.82 + San Antonio defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

San Antonio scores more
45%
level
28%
Gualaceo SC scores more
27%

San Antonio at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "San Antonio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Antonio vs Gualaceo SC

Gualaceo SC beat San Antonio 1-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on March 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra in Ibarra.