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Gualaceo SC vs San Antonio — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Gualaceo SC
Gualaceo SC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
San Antonio
San Antonio
J. Penarrieta 90'
O. Quintero 85'
5/16/2026Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 10Estadio Jorge Andrade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Gualaceo SC46%
×Draw31%
San Antonio23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gualaceo SC
1.15
San Antonio
0.72

Gualaceo SC creates 60% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 43 away

creates per match

Gualaceo SC
1.17
San Antonio
0.65

allows per match

Gualaceo SC
0.79
San Antonio
1.12

finishing

Gualaceo SC+0.00on par
San Antonio+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gualaceo SC ↓

San Antonio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Gualaceo SC or draw
77%
Gualaceo SC or San Antonio
69%
Draw or San Antonio
54%

Winning margin

Gualaceo SC wins by 2+
20%
San Antonio wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gualaceo SC 1+ goals
68%
Gualaceo SC 2+ goals
32%
Gualaceo SC 3+ goals
11%
San Antonio 1+ goals
51%
San Antonio 2+ goals
16%
San Antonio 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)
67%
San Antonio (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gualaceo SC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.79 · 111 matches

San Antonio away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.12 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gualaceo SC attack 1.17 + San Antonio defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.15

San Antonio attack 0.65 + Gualaceo SC defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gualaceo SC scores more
46%
level
31%
San Antonio scores more
23%

Gualaceo SC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gualaceo SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

85'
O. Quintero
90'
J. Penarrieta
Gualaceo
San
Cipriano
Manager: Cipriano
A. Vinueza
Manager: A. Vinueza

Liga Pro Serie B: Gualaceo SC 1–1 San Antonio

Gualaceo SC and San Antonio drew 1-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on May 16, 2026.

Goals: O. Quintero (85'), J. Penarrieta (90').

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Andrade in Azogues.