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San Antonio vs Chacaritas — Liga Pro Serie B 2024

San Antonio
San Antonio
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Chacaritas
Chacaritas
A. Draper 9'
R. Cabeza 72'
10/2/2024Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 32Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

San Antonio58%
×Draw24%
Chacaritas18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Antonio
1.66
Chacaritas
0.79

San Antonio creates 110% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 34 away

creates per match

San Antonio
1.26
Chacaritas
0.53

allows per match

San Antonio
1.05
Chacaritas
2.06

finishing

San Antonio+0.00on par
Chacaritas+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Antonio ↓

Chacaritas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

San Antonio or draw
82%
San Antonio or Chacaritas
76%
Draw or Chacaritas
42%

Winning margin

San Antonio wins by 2+
32%
Chacaritas wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

San Antonio 1+ goals
81%
San Antonio 2+ goals
49%
San Antonio 3+ goals
23%
Chacaritas 1+ goals
55%
Chacaritas 2+ goals
19%
Chacaritas 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

San Antonio (draw refunded)
77%
Chacaritas (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Antonio at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.05 · 42 matches

Chacaritas away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.06 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Antonio attack 1.26 + Chacaritas defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.66

Chacaritas attack 0.53 + San Antonio defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

San Antonio scores more
58%
level
24%
Chacaritas scores more
18%

San Antonio at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "San Antonio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
A. Draper
72'
R. Cabeza

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: San Antonio 1–1 Chacaritas

San Antonio and Chacaritas drew 1-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on October 2, 2024.

Goals: A. Draper (9'), R. Cabeza (72').

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra in Ibarra.