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San Antonio vs Atletico FC — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

San Antonio
San Antonio
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Atletico FC
Atletico FC
K. Valencia 43'
J. Pita 18'
4/29/2026Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

San Antonio37%
×Draw28%
Atletico FC35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Antonio
1.17
Atletico FC
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

San Antonio
1.50
Atletico FC
1.17

allows per match

San Antonio
1.10
Atletico FC
0.83

finishing

San Antonio+0.00on par
Atletico FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Antonio ↓

Atletico FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

San Antonio or draw
65%
San Antonio or Atletico FC
72%
Draw or Atletico FC
63%

Winning margin

San Antonio wins by 2+
15%
Atletico FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

San Antonio 1+ goals
69%
San Antonio 2+ goals
33%
San Antonio 3+ goals
11%
Atletico FC 1+ goals
68%
Atletico FC 2+ goals
32%
Atletico FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

San Antonio (draw refunded)
51%
Atletico FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Antonio at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Atletico FC away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Antonio attack 1.50 + Atletico FC defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.17

Atletico FC attack 1.17 + San Antonio defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

San Antonio scores more
37%
level
28%
Atletico FC scores more
35%

San Antonio at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "San Antonio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
J. Pita
43'
K. Valencia

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: San Antonio 1–1 Atletico FC

San Antonio and Atletico FC drew 1-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on April 29, 2026.

Goals: J. Pita (18'), K. Valencia (43').