San Antonio Unido 1–1 Lautaro de Buin

San Antonio Unido

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Lautaro de Buin

7/28/2024

Segunda División · Round 16Estadio Municipal de La Pintana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

San Antonio Unido41%

×Draw25%

Lautaro de Buin34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Antonio UnidoExpected goals in this matchLautaro de Buin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.33

San Antonio Unido

1.48

Lautaro de Buin

1.33

San Antonio Unido creates 11% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 58 away

1.44

creates per match

1.09

1.56

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

San Antonio Unido

1.44

Lautaro de Buin

1.09

allows per match

San Antonio Unido

1.56

Lautaro de Buin

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Antonio Unido+0.00on par

Lautaro de Buin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Antonio Unido ↓

Lautaro de Buin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

San Antonio Unido or draw

66%

San Antonio Unido or Lautaro de Buin

75%

Draw or Lautaro de Buin

59%

Winning margin

San Antonio Unido wins by 2+

20%

Lautaro de Buin wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

San Antonio Unido 1+ goals

77%

San Antonio Unido 2+ goals

43%

San Antonio Unido 3+ goals

19%

Lautaro de Buin 1+ goals

74%

Lautaro de Buin 2+ goals

38%

Lautaro de Buin 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

San Antonio Unido (draw refunded)

55%

Lautaro de Buin (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Antonio Unido at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.56 · 71 matches

Lautaro de Buin away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Antonio Unido attack 1.44 + Lautaro de Buin defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.48

Lautaro de Buin attack 1.09 + San Antonio Unido defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

San Antonio Unido scores more

41%

level

25%

Lautaro de Buin scores more

34%

San Antonio Unido at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "San Antonio Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff