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Trapani vs Spal — Serie B 2018

Trapani
Trapani
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Spal
Spal
B. Petković 51' (pen)
M. Antenucci 44'
11/21/2016Serie BSerie B · Round 15Stadio Polisportivo Provinciale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Trapani44%
×Draw28%
Spal28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trapani
1.34
Spal
1.01

Trapani creates 33% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 60 away

creates per match

Trapani
1.42
Spal
0.90

allows per match

Trapani
1.11
Spal
1.27

finishing

Trapani+0.00on par
Spal+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trapani ↓

Spal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Trapani or draw
72%
Trapani or Spal
72%
Draw or Spal
56%

Winning margin

Trapani wins by 2+
21%
Spal wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Trapani 1+ goals
74%
Trapani 2+ goals
39%
Trapani 3+ goals
15%
Spal 1+ goals
64%
Spal 2+ goals
27%
Spal 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Trapani (draw refunded)
61%
Spal (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trapani at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Spal away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.27 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trapani attack 1.42 + Spal defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.34

Spal attack 0.90 + Trapani defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Trapani scores more
44%
level
28%
Spal scores more
28%

Trapani at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Trapani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
M. Antenucci↳ P. Schiattarella
46'
N. Citro← S. Colombatto
50'
Mariano Arini
51'
B. PetkovićPenalty
54'
Andrea Beghetto
62'
L. Mora← M. Castagnetti
71'
G. Zigoni← M. Finotto
75'
L. Canotto← P. Fazio
82'
Luigi Canotto
82'
Pepin← Coronado
85'
Gabriele Marchegiani
85'
C. Del Grosso← A. Beghetto
86'
Manuel Lazzari
88'
Manuel Lazzari
89'
Mirco Antenucci
90'
Giuseppe Figliomeni

Possession

52%Trapani

Shots

13Trapani

Statistics

TrapaniSpal
Overview
52%Possession48%
13Total Shots4
5Corners5
16Fouls14
Shots
13Total Shots4
8On Target2
5Off Target2
Passing
52%Possession48%
Goalkeeping
1Saves7
Discipline
16Fouls14
2Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards1
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Trapani vs Spal

Trapani and Spal drew 1-1 in Serie B on November 21, 2016.

Goals: M. Antenucci (44'), B. Petković (51' pen).

Trapani controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 4.

The match was played at Stadio Polisportivo Provinciale in Erice.