San Antonio Bulo Bulo 1–2 Oriente Petrolero

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Oriente Petrolero

Arthur 17'

G. Álvarez 90'

D. Barreto 28'

7/13/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 5Estadio Dr. Carlos Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

San Antonio Bulo Bulo51%

×Draw22%

Oriente Petrolero27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Antonio Bulo BuloExpected goals in this matchOriente Petrolero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.38

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

1.98

Oriente Petrolero

1.38

San Antonio Bulo Bulo creates 43% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 128 away

1.96

creates per match

1.17

1.58

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

1.96

Oriente Petrolero

1.17

allows per match

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

1.58

Oriente Petrolero

2.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Antonio Bulo Bulo+0.00on par

Oriente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Antonio Bulo Bulo ↓

Oriente Petrolero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

San Antonio Bulo Bulo or draw

73%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo or Oriente Petrolero

78%

Draw or Oriente Petrolero

49%

Winning margin

San Antonio Bulo Bulo wins by 2+

30%

Oriente Petrolero wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

San Antonio Bulo Bulo 1+ goals

86%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo 2+ goals

59%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo 3+ goals

31%

Oriente Petrolero 1+ goals

75%

Oriente Petrolero 2+ goals

40%

Oriente Petrolero 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

San Antonio Bulo Bulo (draw refunded)

66%

Oriente Petrolero (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Antonio Bulo Bulo at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.58 · 45 matches

Oriente Petrolero away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.01 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Antonio Bulo Bulo attack 1.96 + Oriente Petrolero defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.98

Oriente Petrolero attack 1.17 + San Antonio Bulo Bulo defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

San Antonio Bulo Bulo scores more

51%

level

22%

Oriente Petrolero scores more

27%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "San Antonio Bulo Bulo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

91

G. Álvarez

Oriente Petrolero · F

8.9

Match Events

17'

Arthur↳ J. Rodríguez

28'

D. Barreto↳ G. Álvarez

33'

Fabio Vargas

39'

M. De Lima← G. Mendoza

39'

J. Alaca← Neto Acará

58'

R. Borda← J. Rodríguez

63'

Juvenal Caraballo

70'

Daniel PassiraPenalty cancelled

70'

Alejandro Torrez

73'

M. Riquelme← R. Joffre

80'

A. Fernández← C. Ribera

80'

L. Montenegro← J. Prieto

80'

F. Gonzales← D. Barreto

87'

S. Melgar← K. Salvatierra

88'

90+5'

90+4'

90'

90+5'

90+3'

Gilbert ÁlvarezGoal confirmed

90'

G. Álvarez↳ J. Sánchez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SanOriente

Overview

58%Possession42%

17Total Shots14

3Corners3

13Fouls16

Shots

17Total Shots14

3On Target7

10Off Target4

4Blocked3

7Inside Box9

10Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

353Total Passes245

263Accurate Passes148

75%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls16

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

2Offsides1