San Antonio Bulo Bulo 2–3 Nacional Potosí

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Nacional Potosí

Daniel Passira 84' (pen)

Neto Acará 81'

V. Abrego 90+3', 89' (pen)

M. Prost 60'

12/3/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 25Estadio Dr. Carlos Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

San Antonio Bulo Bulo48%

×Draw23%

Nacional Potosí29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Antonio Bulo BuloExpected goals in this matchNacional Potosí

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.40

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

1.87

Nacional Potosí

1.40

San Antonio Bulo Bulo creates 34% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 130 away

1.96

creates per match

1.22

1.58

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

1.96

Nacional Potosí

1.22

allows per match

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

1.58

Nacional Potosí

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Antonio Bulo Bulo+0.00on par

Nacional Potosí+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Antonio Bulo Bulo ↓

Nacional Potosí →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

San Antonio Bulo Bulo or draw

71%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo or Nacional Potosí

77%

Draw or Nacional Potosí

52%

Winning margin

San Antonio Bulo Bulo wins by 2+

27%

Nacional Potosí wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

San Antonio Bulo Bulo 1+ goals

85%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo 2+ goals

56%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo 3+ goals

29%

Nacional Potosí 1+ goals

75%

Nacional Potosí 2+ goals

41%

Nacional Potosí 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

San Antonio Bulo Bulo (draw refunded)

63%

Nacional Potosí (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Antonio Bulo Bulo at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.58 · 45 matches

Nacional Potosí away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Antonio Bulo Bulo attack 1.96 + Nacional Potosí defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.87

Nacional Potosí attack 1.22 + San Antonio Bulo Bulo defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

San Antonio Bulo Bulo scores more

48%

level

23%

Nacional Potosí scores more

29%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "San Antonio Bulo Bulo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

V. Abrego

Nacional Potosí · M

9.2

Match Events

-5'

Jeferson Virreira Cossio

-5'

Heber Leanos

22'

Sebastián Viveros

46'

L. Jaldín← A. Fernández

59'

M. Castellón← S. Viveros

60'

M. Prost↳ V. Abrego

65'

Gustavo Olguín

66'

J. Vargas← C. Justiniano

67'

J. Rodríguez← I. Huayhuata

67'

74'

74'

75'

76'

76'

C. Preciado← S. Guerra

80'

Diego Josue Hoyos

81'

Neto Acará↳ J. Vargas

84'

Daniel PassiraPenalty confirmed

84'

Daniel PassiraPenalty

87'

Daniel Passira

89'

V. AbregoPenalty

90+1'

90'

90'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SanNacional

Overview

63%Possession37%

11Total Shots9

5Corners4

13Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots9

4On Target5

4Off Target3

3Blocked1

6Inside Box7

5Outside Box2

Passing

63%Possession37%

410Total Passes241

324Accurate Passes150

79%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls13

4Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards1

2Offsides3