Samut Songkhram 0–3 Prime Bangkok: Result & Stats

Samut Songkhram

0 – 3

Prime Bangkok

9/29/2021

FA Cup · Qualifying RoundRatchaburi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Samut Songkhram26%

×Draw17%

Prime Bangkok57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Samut SongkhramExpected goals in this matchPrime Bangkok

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

3.17

Samut Songkhram

2.17

Prime Bangkok

3.17

Prime Bangkok creates 46% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

2.67

creates per match

3.67

2.67

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Samut Songkhram

2.67

Prime Bangkok

3.67

allows per match

Samut Songkhram

2.67

Prime Bangkok

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Samut Songkhram+0.00on par

Prime Bangkok+0.00on par

Total goals

Over90
Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes85
No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samut Songkhram ↓

Prime Bangkok →

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1–01%

1–13%

1–26%

1–36%

1–45%

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–35%

3–44%

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

97%3%2.5

90%10%3.5

77%23%4.5

60%40%

Double chance

Samut Songkhram or draw

43%

Samut Songkhram or Prime Bangkok

83%

Draw or Prime Bangkok

74%

Winning margin

Samut Songkhram wins by 2+

13%

Prime Bangkok wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Samut Songkhram 1+ goals

89%

Samut Songkhram 2+ goals

64%

Samut Songkhram 3+ goals

36%

Prime Bangkok 1+ goals

96%

Prime Bangkok 2+ goals

82%

Prime Bangkok 3+ goals

60%

Draw no bet

Samut Songkhram (draw refunded)

31%

Prime Bangkok (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

81%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Samut Songkhram at home — creates 2.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Prime Bangkok away — creates 3.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Samut Songkhram attack 2.67 + Prime Bangkok defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.17

Prime Bangkok attack 3.67 + Samut Songkhram defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 3.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Samut Songkhram scores more

26%

level

17%

Prime Bangkok scores more

57%

Prime Bangkok at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Prime Bangkok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff