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Samut Songkhram vs Pathum Thani University — League Cup 2021

Samut Songkhram
Samut Songkhram
FT
1 – 0
Pathum Thani University
Pathum Thani University
10/20/2021League CupLeague Cup · 2nd Qualifying RoundSamut Sakhon Provincial Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Samut Songkhram60%
×Draw21%
Pathum Thani University20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samut Songkhram
2.13
Pathum Thani University
1.13

Samut Songkhram creates 88% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Samut Songkhram
1.25
Pathum Thani University
1.00

allows per match

Samut Songkhram
1.25
Pathum Thani University
3.00

finishing

Samut Songkhram+0.00on par
Pathum Thani University+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samut Songkhram ↓

Pathum Thani University →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Samut Songkhram or draw
80%
Samut Songkhram or Pathum Thani University
79%
Draw or Pathum Thani University
40%

Winning margin

Samut Songkhram wins by 2+
37%
Pathum Thani University wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Samut Songkhram 1+ goals
88%
Samut Songkhram 2+ goals
63%
Samut Songkhram 3+ goals
35%
Pathum Thani University 1+ goals
68%
Pathum Thani University 2+ goals
31%
Pathum Thani University 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Samut Songkhram (draw refunded)
75%
Pathum Thani University (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samut Songkhram at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Pathum Thani University away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samut Songkhram attack 1.25 + Pathum Thani University defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Pathum Thani University attack 1.00 + Samut Songkhram defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Samut Songkhram scores more
60%
level
21%
Pathum Thani University scores more
20%

Samut Songkhram at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Samut Songkhram will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Samut Songkhram 1–0 Pathum Thani University

Samut Songkhram beat Pathum Thani University 1-0 in League Cup on October 20, 2021.

The match was played at Samut Sakhon Provincial Central Stadium in Samut Sakhon.