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Samut Songkhram vs Nakhon Pathom — League Cup 2021

Samut Songkhram
Samut Songkhram
FT
0 – 5
Nakhon Pathom
Nakhon Pathom
11/3/2021League CupLeague Cup · Play-offsSamut Sakhon Provincial Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Samut Songkhram18%
×Draw21%
Nakhon Pathom60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samut Songkhram
1.00
Nakhon Pathom
2.00

Nakhon Pathom creates 100% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Samut Songkhram
1.25
Nakhon Pathom
2.75

allows per match

Samut Songkhram
1.25
Nakhon Pathom
0.75

finishing

Samut Songkhram+0.00on par
Nakhon Pathom+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samut Songkhram ↓

Nakhon Pathom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Samut Songkhram or draw
40%
Samut Songkhram or Nakhon Pathom
79%
Draw or Nakhon Pathom
82%

Winning margin

Samut Songkhram wins by 2+
6%
Nakhon Pathom wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Samut Songkhram 1+ goals
63%
Samut Songkhram 2+ goals
26%
Samut Songkhram 3+ goals
8%
Nakhon Pathom 1+ goals
86%
Nakhon Pathom 2+ goals
59%
Nakhon Pathom 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Samut Songkhram (draw refunded)
23%
Nakhon Pathom (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samut Songkhram at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Nakhon Pathom away — creates 2.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samut Songkhram attack 1.25 + Nakhon Pathom defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.00

Nakhon Pathom attack 2.75 + Samut Songkhram defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Samut Songkhram scores more
18%
level
21%
Nakhon Pathom scores more
60%

Nakhon Pathom at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Nakhon Pathom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Samut Songkhram vs Nakhon Pathom

Nakhon Pathom beat Samut Songkhram 5-0 in League Cup on November 3, 2021.

The match was played at Samut Sakhon Provincial Central Stadium in Samut Sakhon.