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Samut Songkhram vs Lampang FC — League Cup 2021

Samut Songkhram
Samut Songkhramadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lampang FC
Lampang FC
1/25/2023League CupLeague Cup · Round of 16Samut Sakhon Provincial Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Samut Songkhram23%
×Draw25%
Lampang FC52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samut Songkhram
1.00
Lampang FC
1.63

Lampang FC creates 63% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Samut Songkhram
1.25
Lampang FC
2.00

allows per match

Samut Songkhram
1.25
Lampang FC
0.75

finishing

Samut Songkhram+0.00on par
Lampang FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samut Songkhram ↓

Lampang FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Samut Songkhram or draw
48%
Samut Songkhram or Lampang FC
75%
Draw or Lampang FC
77%

Winning margin

Samut Songkhram wins by 2+
8%
Lampang FC wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Samut Songkhram 1+ goals
63%
Samut Songkhram 2+ goals
26%
Samut Songkhram 3+ goals
8%
Lampang FC 1+ goals
80%
Lampang FC 2+ goals
48%
Lampang FC 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Samut Songkhram (draw refunded)
31%
Lampang FC (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samut Songkhram at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Lampang FC away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samut Songkhram attack 1.25 + Lampang FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.00

Lampang FC attack 2.00 + Samut Songkhram defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Samut Songkhram scores more
23%
level
25%
Lampang FC scores more
52%

Lampang FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lampang FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Samut Songkhram 1–0 Lampang FC

Samut Songkhram beat Lampang FC 1-0 in League Cup on January 25, 2023.

The match was played at Samut Sakhon Provincial Central Stadium in Samut Sakhon.