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Samut Sakhon FC vs Ubon UMT — Thai League 2 2018

Samut Sakhon FC
Samut Sakhon FC
FT
1 – 0
Ubon UMT
Ubon UMT
6/23/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 17Samut Sakhon Provincial Central Stadium (Samut Sakhon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Samut Sakhon FC37%
×Draw24%
Ubon UMT39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samut Sakhon FC
1.48
Ubon UMT
1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 17 away

creates per match

Samut Sakhon FC
1.21
Ubon UMT
0.82

allows per match

Samut Sakhon FC
2.25
Ubon UMT
1.76

finishing

Samut Sakhon FC+0.00on par
Ubon UMT+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samut Sakhon FC ↓

Ubon UMT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Samut Sakhon FC or draw
61%
Samut Sakhon FC or Ubon UMT
76%
Draw or Ubon UMT
63%

Winning margin

Samut Sakhon FC wins by 2+
17%
Ubon UMT wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Samut Sakhon FC 1+ goals
77%
Samut Sakhon FC 2+ goals
43%
Samut Sakhon FC 3+ goals
19%
Ubon UMT 1+ goals
78%
Ubon UMT 2+ goals
45%
Ubon UMT 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Samut Sakhon FC (draw refunded)
49%
Ubon UMT (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samut Sakhon FC at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.25 · 48 matches

Ubon UMT away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samut Sakhon FC attack 1.21 + Ubon UMT defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ubon UMT attack 0.82 + Samut Sakhon FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Samut Sakhon FC scores more
37%
level
24%
Ubon UMT scores more
39%

Ubon UMT at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ubon UMT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Samut Sakhon FC vs Ubon UMT

Samut Sakhon FC beat Ubon UMT 1-0 in Thai League 2 on June 23, 2019.

The match was played at Samut Sakhon Provincial Central Stadium (Samut Sakhon).