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Samut Sakhon FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya — Thai League 2 2018

Samut Sakhon FC
Samut Sakhon FC
FT
1 – 2
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Nong Bua Pitchaya
3/30/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 7Samut Sakhon Provincial Central Stadium (Samut Sakhon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Samut Sakhon FC27%
×Draw23%
Nong Bua Pitchaya50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samut Sakhon FC
1.25
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.79

Nong Bua Pitchaya creates 43% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 83 away

creates per match

Samut Sakhon FC
1.21
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.34

allows per match

Samut Sakhon FC
2.25
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.30

finishing

Samut Sakhon FC+0.00on par
Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samut Sakhon FC ↓

Nong Bua Pitchaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Samut Sakhon FC or draw
50%
Samut Sakhon FC or Nong Bua Pitchaya
77%
Draw or Nong Bua Pitchaya
73%

Winning margin

Samut Sakhon FC wins by 2+
11%
Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Samut Sakhon FC 1+ goals
71%
Samut Sakhon FC 2+ goals
36%
Samut Sakhon FC 3+ goals
13%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals
83%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals
53%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Samut Sakhon FC (draw refunded)
35%
Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samut Sakhon FC at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.25 · 48 matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.30 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samut Sakhon FC attack 1.21 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.34 + Samut Sakhon FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Samut Sakhon FC scores more
27%
level
23%
Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more
50%

Nong Bua Pitchaya at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Nong Bua Pitchaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Samut Sakhon FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya

Nong Bua Pitchaya beat Samut Sakhon FC 2-1 in Thai League 2 on March 30, 2019.

The match was played at Samut Sakhon Provincial Central Stadium (Samut Sakhon).